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GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES
LOK SABHA
UNSTARRED QUESTION NO: 1616
ANSWERED ON:  27.07.2022
Early and Active Monsoon
Ravneet Singh
Will the Minister of



EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:-


(a) whether the country is witnessing an unusually early and active phase of the annual rainy season and if so, the details thereof, State/UT-wise along with the reasons therefor;
(b) whether this unusual rain pattern is not good for agriculture and calls for effective water management system and other measures for use in the agricultural sector and if so, the details thereof;
(c) whether the Government is taking/has taken any measures to conduct a detailed analysis to defuse this unusual trend of early and active monsoon in the future; and
(d) if so, the details thereof and if not, the reasons therefor?


ANSWER
THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) FOR
MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
AND EARTH SCIENCES
(DR. JITENDRA SINGH)

(a) Early onset of southwest monsoon is an inherent property observed in the inter-annual variability of monsoon behaviour. This year the monsoon onset over Kerala was on 29th May, 2022 against the normal date of 01st June(3 days ahead of normal date) and it has covered the entire country on 2nd July 2022, against the normal date of 8th July i.e. six days ahead of the normal date for monsoon coverage for the entire country. The map related to Advance of Southwest monsoon 2022 is given in Annexure-I.

The monsoon rainfall had been normal [92% of the Long Period Average (LPA)] during June 2022, for the country as a whole; the LPA of the rainfall for the month of June being 165.4 mm based on the data of 1971-2020. The rainfall in June is said to be normal if it is within 92% to 108% of LPA.

Rainfall statistics for the month of June 2022 for the country as a whole and four homogeneous regions are given in the table below:

Region Rainfall during 1-30 June 2022
Actual Normal % Departure
EAST & NORTHEAST INDIA 400.9 328.4 22%
NORTHWEST INDIA 68.6 78.1 -12%
CENTRAL INDIA 118.9 170.3 -30%
SOUTH PENINSULA INDIA 139 161 -14%
COUNTRY AS A WHOLE 152.3 165.3 -8%




From the above table it is found that there was excess rainfall over East & Northeast India and deficient rainfall over Central India.

Monsoon remained active in July due to formation and movement of low pressure systems across Central India and the monsoon trough lying to the south of its normal position. The details of seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole and for four homogeneous regions till 20th July are given below:

Region Rainfall during 1 June to 20 July 2022
Actual Normal % Departure
EAST & NORTHEAST INDIA 525.7 610.7 -14%
NORTHWEST INDIA 187.4 206.0 -9%
CENTRAL INDIA 481.9 369.5 +30%
SOUTH PENINSULA INDIA 389.2 290.0 +34%
COUNTRY AS A WHOLE 380.1 342.1 +11%

The sub divisional rainfall and State/UT wise rainfall distribution for the country as a whole for the period from 01 June to 20 July 2022 are given in Annexure-II and Annexure-III respectively. Weekly statistics of cumulative rainfall for the country as a whole during monsoon season 2022 is given in Annexure-IV.

(b) Changes in rainfall pattern may impact agriculture if it exceeds the critical limit. However, the severity of impact depends upon various factors, such as crop type and variety, location of land and type of soil, stage of crops etc.

Appropriate measures during occurrence of unusual rainfall may save the crops up to a certain extent. IMD runs an operational Agrometeorological Advisory Services (AAS) viz., GraminKrishiMausamSewa (GKMS) scheme for the benefit of farming community in the country. Under the scheme, medium range weather forecast at district and block level is generated for rainfall, temperature, humidity, wind speed, wind direction and cloud cover and based on the forecast, 130 Agromet Field Units (AMFUs), located at State Agricultural Universities, institutes of Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) and Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) etc. and 199 District Agromet Units (DAMUs) established at KrishiVigyanKendras (KVKs) of ICAR, prepare Agromet Advisories on every Tuesday and Friday for the districts under their jurisdiction and for the blocks of the district of their location and communicate to the farmers to take decision on day-to-day agricultural operations at micro-level.

IMD also monitors rainfall situation & weather aberrations including heavy rainfall and issues alerts & warnings for extreme weather events along with suitable remedial measures to the farmers time to time using multichannel dissemination system like print and electronic media, Door Darshan, radio, internet, mobile apps etc. including SMS through Kisan Portal and also through private companies under Public Private Partnership (PPP) mode under GKMS scheme. Social media like WhatsApp and Facebook is also used for quicker dissemination of forecast and advisories to the farmers. Such alerts and warnings are also shared with State Department of Agriculture for the effective management of calamity. In addition to that, Impact based forecast (IBFs) for agriculture along with appropriate possible measures are also being prepared by AMFUs and DAMUs based on the severe weather warnings including heavy rainfall.




(c)-(d) Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) is continuously undertaking research to conduct a detailed analysis to find out unusual changes in early and active monsoon.

Recently IMD brought out web based online “Climate Hazard & Vulnerability Atlas of India” prepared for the thirteen most hazardous meteorological events, which cause extensive damages, economic, human, and animal losses. The same can be accessed at https://imdpune.gov.in/hazardatlas/abouthazard.html. IMD has studied and investigated the observed changes of rainfall patterns and its extremes in the recent 30 years in different states and districts. 29 Reports of states and UTs on "Observed Rainfall Variability and Changes” have been published by IMD in January 2020. The reports are also available to the public on the IMD Pune website https://imdpune.gov.in/hydrology/rainfall%20variability%20page/rainfall%20trend.html)

The highlights of the report are given below:

? Five states viz., Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Meghalaya and Nagaland have shown significant decreasing trends in southwest monsoon rainfall during the recent 30 years period (1989-2018).
? The annual rainfall over these five states along with the states of Arunachal Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh also show significant decreasing trends.
? Other states do not show any significant changes in southwest monsoon rainfall during the same period.
? Considering district-wise rainfall, there are many districts in the country, which show significant changes in southwest monsoon and annual rainfall during the recent 30 years period (1989-2018). With regard to the frequency of heavy rainfall days, significant increasing trend is observed over Saurashtra& Kutch, Southeastern parts of Rajasthan, Northern parts of Tamil Nadu, Northern parts of Andhra Pradesh and adjoining areas of Southwest Odisha, many parts of Chhattisgarh, Southwest Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Manipur & Mizoram, Konkan& Goa and Uttarakhand.

IMD is dedicated to monitoring, detecting, and forecasting weather and climate, including early warning for severe weather events. IMD issue forecast/outlook for rainfall in different spatial and time scales during different season, which will help to take appropriate/anticipatory action to overcome the weather and climate risks.




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